I keep seeing pleas for the Eagles to trade for Torrey Smith, apparently based on the questionable reports from ProFootballTalk ('cause, y'know, PFT totally isn't the TMZ of the NFL world). The logic is something like this:
1) The Eagles need WRs who can catch the ball.
2) Torrey Smith is a WR. He has been known to catch the ball. Also, he is a deep threat who can stretch the field and open up opportunities underneath for players like Jordan Matthews.
3) Profit???
There's just one problem with this: Torrey Smith is not the top WR that some fans seem to believe. His only role would be as a deep threat to change defensive coverage against the Eagles; he's not much better at catching the ball than our current WRs. Yes, including Dorial Green-Beckham or Nelson Agholor (!), and I'll prove it.
In 2014, Smith had a higher drop rate (6.5%) than rookie Jordan Matthews (5.8%), according to Football Outsiders. In 2015, Smith had a higher drop rate (4.8%) than Matthews (3.9%). In each year of Matthews' career, including so far in the 2016 season, Smith has caught fewer balls, for fewer yards, than Matthews. And Smith has caught fewer TDs, to boot, except for when he caught a ridiculous 11 TDs in 2014.
And, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA and DYAR, Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor are BOTH better receivers than Torrey Smith thus far in 2016. Green-Beckham would be, too, if he caught more passes for the Eagles. Do you really want to trade a valuable draft pick for a guy who's worse by most measures than our current young receivers? Just so you can get a shiny new toy?
I wouldn't necessarily be against trading for Torrey Smith, but I would be against it if we traded premium resources for him as though he's a #1 WR--because he simply isn't one. I'm not normally a look-at-the-stats-and-forget-the-tape kind of guy, but the tape backs it up: Smith has never been a top WR. Never. And I have no reason to believe that'll change.
The only reason to trade for Torrey Smith is that he can be a decoy (who occasionally catches deep balls), which would open up space for guys like Jordan Matthews, Brent Celek, Zach Ertz (maybe) and running backs like Darren Sproles underneath.
Torrey Smith is a role player. He is not a sure-handed receiver. He is not the solution to our receiving woes. Period.
