Eagles' Offseason Plan for 2017
I've written before that mock drafts are worthless. And I immediately proceeded to publish a mock draft of my own—but with a twist!
Instead of the typical "Team X is going to pick Player Y," I instead listed a variety of players, at a variety of positions, that the Eagles might consider. Only then did I list the players I thought the Eagles would pick.
Naturally, when the Eagles traded up for Carson Wentz, my entire scenario was ripped to tatters. I was upset that the Eagles spent all those picks in order to trade up for one player; a very risky move. Coach Pederson's decision to sit the rookie QB all year met with my approval. But, as it turns out, I was wrong—and I'm quite happy about that!
Despite the fact that the Eagles didn't pick a single prospect that I had suggested, I'm doubling down on it this year. I believe that my approach has the advantage of providing a more robust view of the players and the strategy, without shoehorning a particular player into a particular draft slot.
So, here goes my second annual attempt at making an offseason plan for the Eagles:
Carson Wentz wants the Eagles to pick that player...
Needs:
Wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line (depth), running back, defensive line (depth), linebacker (depth)
Free agency
Players to re-sign:
- DT Bennie Logan (4 years, $31m)
- CB Nolan Carroll (2 years, $4m)
- C/G Stefen Wisniewski (3 years, $8.5m)
- TE Trey Burton (3 years, $5m)
- CB Ron Brooks (2 years, $3m)
- LB/ST Bryan Braman (2 years, $1.9m)
- LB Najee Goode (1 year, $650,000)
- QB Aaron Murray (1 year, $500,000)
Players to cut:
- RB Ryan Mathews (cap savings of $4m)
- CB Leodis McKelvin (cap savings of $3.2m)
- G Allen Barbre (cap savings of $2.1m)
Eagles currently have, roughly balance out the cost of the re-signings as listed above.
Players under contract to restructure or trade:
Restructure:
If the Eagles follow my free agency plan, they will have a much-improved WR corps, but will have less depth than the current roster at the following positions: offensive line (especially C/G), defensive line (mainly DE), running back, cornerback (no huge loss there), and linebacker. Filling holes at such a wide variety of positions would be no small feat! I think it's clear that the Eagles are still a full year & offseason away from being a very competitive team in the NFC. Nonetheless, with smart drafting and good signings in free agency, the Eagles may be closer to competing for the division lead than many would think.
I've compiled a table of some players that the Eagles might be interested in, along with my expectations of where they'll be drafted (subject to change based on performance at the Combine, etc.). Below the table, I will propose three different possible approaches the Eagles might take with this year's draft.
Now, let's get to the draft scenarios:
Players under contract to restructure or trade:
Restructure:
- T Jason Peters - I'm thinking a one-year extension that moves some of his cap hit to next year would be the way to go here. Since Peters reportedly plans to retire after this season, this would lessen his team-leading $11.7m cap hit in 2017.
- QB Chase Daniel - taking an $8m cap hit for an athletically limited backup QB seems absurd. An extension + pay cut seems to be in order here: keep him around as a player/coach/mentor while also kicking some of the cap hit down the road to 2020, at which point he can be cut to save money.
- LB/DE Connor Barwin - he performed well when Chip Kelly was in town and running a 3-4 defense. Now that the Eagles are back to the 4-3 scheme, the aging Barwin is miscast as a DE, and is therefore less productive. His on-field performance going forward probably does not justify the cap hit of $8.35m. He has said that he'd like to stay in Philly, even if it means a pay cut. I'd ask him to take a pretty hefty cut, probably one that he wouldn't be willing to accept! In any case, it would probably be better for both parties if Barwin were traded, thus creating a cap savings of $7.75m.
I like Barwin as a person and acknowledge the good work that he's done for charitable organizations in the Philadelphia area, but a business decision like this cannot assign much weight to such off-field characteristics as leadership and charitable work. The bottom line is that he's being overpaid for his on-field performance. - C Jason Kelce - he frankly hasn't performed well for the last couple of years. He has particular trouble holding up against large/strong defensive tackles. This is a major issue, and the source of many of his holding penalties. The coaches reportedly like Isaac Seumalo as Kelce's replacement. A cap savings of at least $3.8m makes this trade/cut a very real possibility.
- LB Mychal Kendricks - I think that he's been held back by the different schemes, coaching styles, and positions that he's had to learn. Unfortunately, Kendricks' development has been hampered, and he's a prime candidate to be traded to a team with more stability and a scheme that better suits his style of play. I liked Kendricks a lot, but Kendricks' low snap count in 2016 indicates that defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz apparently doesn't think that Kendricks fits his defense. The Eagles could benefit from the minimum $1.8m cap savings that they could incur by moving Kendricks to a better NFL home.
Free agent targets, by position:
- WR:
- DeSean Jackson (3 years, $21m)
- Kenny Stills (4 years, $22m)
- Markus Wheaton (3 years, $12m)
- Cecil Shorts (2 years, $4m)
- Marquise Goodwin (1 year, $1m)
- CB:
- Dre Kirkpatrick (3 years, $12m)
- D.J. Hayden (3 years, $7m)
- Josh Robinson (2 years, $4m)
- Corey White (1 year, $1m)
- Blidi Wreh-Wilson (1 year, $900,000)
- T:
- Sebastian Vollmer (1 year, $4m)
- Marshall Newhouse (1 year, $3.5m)
- Cameron Fleming (2 years, $4m)
- G
- Jahri Evans (1 year, $1.5m)
- Chris Scott (1 year, $800,000)
- RB
- Rex Burkhead (1 year, $800,000)
- Travaris Cadet (1 year, $750,000)
- DE
- Ethan Westbrooks (3 years, $5.5m)
- Jack Crawford (1 year, $1.5m)
- LB
- Gerald Hodges (2 years, $2m)
- Sean Spence (2 years, $1.8m)
Cap information from http://overthecap.com; free agent market values estimated from http://www.spotrac.com. Both are excellent resources for football salary information.
Summary: My thought is to address WR in free agency. The Eagles could sign DeSean Jackson, who would give Wentz an immediate upgrade at WR, and would further open the offense by bringing a deep-ball threat to keep safeties away from the line of scrimmage. The net effect here would be to open bigger holes in running game, and to take coverage away from Jordan Matthews out of the slot. This single signing would therefore help the entire offense! The problem with this route is that such an expensive contract may jeopardize the re-signing of Bennie Logan, unless the team manages to trade or cut Connor Barwin before then. And if Logan isn't re-signed, the Eagles will have a major need at DT, in addition to their other needs.
If DeSean doesn't want to sign with the Eagles, or if another team pays a lot more money for him, Kenny Stills would be a similar (though younger, and potentially more expensive) type of player. Markus Wheaton is a promising talent, but has never been able to put together an entire season of top performance (perhaps partially due to the Steelers' embarrassment of riches at WR), so he would be a cheaper but riskier option.
It also wouldn't hurt to take a flier on a #3- or #4-caliber WR to compete with the likes of Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor. Free agents Cecil Shorts and Marquise Goodwin are good candidates for that role. Then, the Eagles should pick a flanker or split end (that is, an outside WR) somewhere in the first four rounds of the draft, though probably not with a first-round pick. A combination of health, coaching stability, and improved competition—combined with the aforementioned deep threat—should yield a vast improvement for not just the WR corps, but for the offense as a whole.
Though CB is a huge need for the Eagles, it is also a need for many other teams. Therefore, signing a top CB in free agency is likely to be prohibitively expensive, if not completely impossible. Though A.J. Bouye is generating a lot of buzz, I expect that Houston will re-sign him and he will therefore not hit free agency at all (and if he does, he's going to quickly be priced out of the Eagles' range!). I would recommend that the Eagles re-sign Ron Brooks as a slot CB, and perhaps a bargain signing of one or two other players, like Corey White or Blidi Wreh-Wilson. This is an area at which I would invest heavily in the draft, rather than spending big $$$ in free agency.
Depth on the offensive line is a concern, as well as finding depth at center and/or a starting guard if the rumored separation of the Eagles from Jason Kelce materializes [the $3.8m cap savings for cutting or trading Kelce does look very tempting, in light of Kelce's recent struggles...].
As for RB, defensive line, and LB, I expect the Eagles to look for depth/rotational players who will be relatively cheap.
Essentially, my plan for the Eagles' free agency would be to pursue DeSean Jackson vigorously, and possibly a much cheaper veteran WR as well. Otherwise, the Eagles should look for depth all across the offensive line, the defensive line, at linebacker, and at cornerback.
Draft
If the Eagles follow my free agency plan, they will have a much-improved WR corps, but will have less depth than the current roster at the following positions: offensive line (especially C/G), defensive line (mainly DE), running back, cornerback (no huge loss there), and linebacker. Filling holes at such a wide variety of positions would be no small feat! I think it's clear that the Eagles are still a full year & offseason away from being a very competitive team in the NFC. Nonetheless, with smart drafting and good signings in free agency, the Eagles may be closer to competing for the division lead than many would think.
I've compiled a table of some players that the Eagles might be interested in, along with my expectations of where they'll be drafted (subject to change based on performance at the Combine, etc.). Below the table, I will propose three different possible approaches the Eagles might take with this year's draft.
Players to target in the draft
|
|||
Proj.
Round
|
Position
|
Player
|
School
|
Early-to-mid 1
|
CB
|
Tre’Davious White
|
LSU
|
Mid 1
|
CB
|
Jalen ‘Teez’ Tabor
|
Florida
|
Mid 1
|
CB
|
Marshon Lattimore
|
Ohio State
|
Mid-to-late 1
|
CB
|
Gareon Conley
|
Ohio State
|
Mid-to-late 1
|
CB
|
Cordrea Tankersley
|
Clemson
|
Late 1
|
CB
|
Sidney Jones
|
Washington
|
Mid 1
|
RB
|
Dalvin Cook
|
Florida State
|
Mid 1
|
WR
|
Corey Davis
|
Western Michigan
|
Early 1
|
WR
|
Mike Williams
|
Clemson
|
Mid 1
|
DE
|
Derek Barnett
|
Tennessee
|
Early-to-mid 1
|
DT/DE
|
Malik McDowell
|
Michigan State
|
Mid 2
|
WR
|
DeDe Westbrook
I
like him, but he seems to fit best as a slot WR, which is where
Matthews also fits best
|
Oklahoma
|
Mid-to-late 2
|
WR
|
Isaiah Ford
|
Virginia Tech
|
2
|
WR
|
Travis Rudolph
|
Florida State
|
Early-to-mid 2
|
CB
|
Quincy Wilson
|
Florida
|
Mid 2
|
DE
|
Dawuane Smoot
|
Illinois
|
Mid-to-late 2
|
DE
|
Carl Lawson
|
Auburn
|
2
|
RB
|
Alvin Kamara
|
Tennessee
|
2*
|
RB
|
D’Onta Foreman
A
history of fumbling issues scares me off. He also hasn’t shown
much pass-catching ability, which makes him a questionable fit in
Philly
|
Texas
|
2*
|
CB
|
Jourdan Lewis
At
5’10” and 178 lbs, he’s about the size of DeSean Jackson—not
ideal for a player whose job involves tackling some big WRs
|
Michigan
|
2-3
|
RB
|
Wayne Gallman
|
Clemson
|
3
|
CB
|
Rasul Douglas
|
West Virginia
|
3
|
CB
|
Chidobe Awuzie
|
Colorado
|
3
|
RB
|
Samaje Perine
Lacks
explosiveness, but an otherwise powerful and productive player
|
Oklahoma
|
3
|
G
|
Pat Elflein
|
Ohio State
|
3
|
OT
|
Adam Bisnowaty
|
Pittsburgh
|
3
|
DE
|
Harold
Landry
|
Boston College
|
3-4
|
WR
|
Isaiah
‘Zay’ Jones
|
East Carolina
|
3-4
|
CB
|
Cam Sutton
|
Tennessee
|
4
|
WR
|
James Quick
|
Louisville
|
4
|
WR
|
Courtland
Sutton
|
SMU
|
4
|
CB
|
Damontae
Kazee
|
San Diego State
|
4
|
RB
|
Corey Clement
|
Wisconsin
|
4
|
C
|
Tyler
Orlosky
|
West Virginia
|
4-5
|
T/G
|
Dion
Dawkins
|
Temple
|
4-5
|
T
|
Conor
McDermott
|
UCLA
|
4-5
|
C
|
Kyle
Fuller
|
Baylor
|
4-5
|
DE
|
Tanoh Kpassagnon
|
Villanova
|
4-5
|
DE
|
Bryan Cox
|
Florida
|
4-5
|
WR
|
Cooper
Kupp
|
Eastern Washington
|
5
|
DL
|
Chunky Clements
A
versatile d-lineman
|
Illinois
|
5
|
DL
|
Josh Augusta
Another
versatile d-lineman
|
Missouri
|
5
|
RB
|
Kareem Hunt
|
Toledo
|
5
|
WR
|
James
Washington
|
Oklahoma State
|
5
|
CB
|
Jamar Summers
|
Connecticut
|
5
|
WR
|
Damore’ea Stringfellow
|
Ole Miss
|
5
|
LB
|
Dylan Cole
|
Missouri State
|
5-6
|
WR
|
Chris Godwin
|
Penn State
|
5-6
|
CB
|
Jeremy Clark (+)
|
Michigan
|
5-6
|
C
|
Jon Toth
|
Kentucky
|
5-6
|
CB
|
Ed Paris
|
LSU
|
5-6
|
G
|
Greg Pyke
|
Georgia
|
5-6
|
G
|
Nico Siragusa
|
San Diego State
|
5-6
|
WR
|
Taywan Taylor
|
Western Kentucky
|
6
|
WR
|
K.D. Cannon
|
Baylor
|
6
|
WR
|
Jehu Chesson
|
Michigan
|
6-7
|
T
|
Jonathan McLaughlin
|
Virginia Tech
|
6-7
|
T
|
Julie’n Davenport
|
Bucknell
|
7
|
LB
|
Brandon Bell
|
Penn State
|
7
|
LB
|
James Onwalu
|
Notre Dame
|
7
|
DT
|
Harold Brantley
|
Missouri
|
7
|
T
|
Jamarco Jones
|
Ohio State
|
Now, let's get to the draft scenarios:
***
scenario
1
***
I like this scenario best, because it gives the Eagles several promising players at each of the major positions of need. Furthermore, trading
down in the first round would give the Eagles an extra
pick—continuously competitive teams tend to find starting-caliber
players in the 2nd through 5th rounds; it is
therefore wise to accumulate more picks in these rounds, and to pick
multiple players at positions of need.
Why no Christian McCaffrey? Frankly, I don’t see him as a
three-down NFL back—I see McCaffrey not as the next Brian
Westbrook, but as the next Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles. There’s
nothing wrong with a player like that, if your team just needs
a little extra juice in the passing game. For the Eagles,
that’s not the case; they need another back who can carry a
full-time load. I certainly might be wrong about this, but I suspect
that McCaffrey just isn’t NFL-lead-back material. I’m gratified
to see that I’m
not alone in this opinion, or in the Woodhead comparison.
Trade
down from pick 14 to late 1st
round, add 3rd
round
-
Pick 25, Round 1. Cordrea Tankersley, CB, Clemson or Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State
-
Pick 43, Round 2. Isaiah Ford, WR, Virginia Tech
alternatives: DeDe Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma
Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida
Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn
Pick 74, Round 3 [own]. Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson -
alternatives: Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma
Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin
Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia
Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado
-
Pick 92, Round 3 [from Round 1 trade listed above]. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado
alternatives: Harold Landry, DE, Boston College
Isaiah ‘Zay’ Jones, WR, East Carolina
-
Pick 108, Round 4. Isaiah ‘Zay’ Jones, WR, East Carolina
alternative: Kyle Fuller, C, Baylor
-
Pick 119, Round 4. Conor McDermott, T, UCLA
alternatives: Dion Dawkins, T/G, Temple
James Quick, WR, Louisville
Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State
Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State
Dion Dawkins, T/G, Temple
-
Pick 138, Round 5. Jarrod 'Chunky' Clements, DL, Illinois
alternatives: Dylan Cole, LB, Missouri State
Ejuan Price, LB, Pittsburgh
-
Pick 168, Round 6. Jeremy Clark, CB, Michigan*Missed the 2016 season with a torn ACL. This is my favorite value pick, for an undervalued player at an important position of need.
-
Pick 201, Round 7. Brandon Bell, LB, Penn State
In combination with the free agent WR signings, Isaiah Ford is a promising young player and would be a good pick to help build up the depleted WR corps. He does a lot of little things well, including great concentration and very good hands—traits that Eagles' receivers aside from Jordan Matthews sorely lacked in 2016. Zay Jones is another WR that I really hope the Eagles draft; he'd make a good WR2 after a couple years of development. Zay Jones isn't particularly fast, but he's smart and a good technician with top-notch body control and concentration.
I really like Wayne Gallman as a 3-down RB in the future. He and Wendell Smallwood would make a good 1-2 punch in the Eagles' backfield for years to come. Darren Sproles' presence in the Eagles' backfield for 2017 (he has said that he plans to retire after this season) will help in the short-term.
On offensive line, I like Conor McDermott or Dion Dawkins as depth players. After Round 4, I was just kinda spitballing guys. Hey, I'd be happy to watch some game film of late-round prospects if the Eagles pay me! But as a fan [and a grad student], burning a few hours to watch Draft Breakdown tape of some of the early-round prospects is still plenty of investment for virtually no return. [Hey, you're always welcome to help make it worth my while by buying a Carson Wentz jersey through my Amazon affiliate link!] In any case, I did like Chunky Clements' versatility at DT. He might be a good pick if he's still available in the 5th round.
***
Scenario 2
***
In
this scenario, the Eagles look at what happened when Dallas drafted a complete running back to work behind their very good run-blocking
offensive line, and the Eagles want to follow suit with the most
explosive running back in this year’s draft.
1.
Pick 14, Round 1. Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
2.
Pick 43, Round 2. Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida or
Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State
*I expect one of these corners to fall on draft day. The Eagles could easily snatch a top
corner, even after picking an excellent running back in the first round!
*I expect one of these corners to fall on draft day. The Eagles could easily snatch a top
corner, even after picking an excellent running back in the first round!
3. Pick 74, Round 3. Isaiah ‘Zay’ Jones, WR, East Carolina
alternatives: Courtland Sutton, WR, Southern Methodist University
James Quick, WR, Louisville
Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia
4. Pick 108, Round 4. Cam Sutton, CB, Tennessee
alternative: Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State
5. Pick 119, Round 4. Dion Dawkins, T/G, Temple
alternative: Tyler Orlosky, C, West Virginia
alternative: Tyler Orlosky, C, West Virginia
6. Pick 138, Round 5. Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State
alternatives: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
alternatives: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
Josh Augusta, DT, Missouri
7. Pick 168, Round 6. Jeremy Clark, CB, Michigan
8. Pick 201, Round 7. Johnny Caspers, G,
Stanford
The logic here is that an explosive
running back can allow Wentz
to hand off to a runner who can consistently move the
chains, thereby allowing Wentz and Coach Pederson to be more
judicious in choosing when to throw the ball. The strengthened
running game and ensuing methodical, clock-eating drives would also enable the defense to spend more time resting
on the sidelines, which should lead to better performance on that
side of the ball.
However,
an argument against this 1st-round-RB approach
is tough to refute—the
Eagles are a team with several important needs, and a running back
won’t fix them all. It seems like a bit of a luxury to pick an
RB in the first round, when CB and WR are
bigger needs and are
generally viewed as more important positions.
However, this scenario still results in a pretty good draft haul for the Eagles. With a top RB, a couple promising young CBs, a couple WRs with some promise (don't expect Godwin or Jones to produce a lot right away, but I expect them to develop into good contributors over the course of the next couple years), and a couple young offensive linemen.
I don't really like the lack of defensive linemen here, but that's the way this scenario shook out. Josh Augusta in the fifth round (instead of Chris Godwin) is an entirely defensible alternative here, though I do like Godwin as a late-round prospect.
***
Scenario 3
***
This scenario is the polar opposite of Scenario 2, as RB is de-emphasized here in favor of other positions early
in the draft. This is more likely to occur if the coaching staff has
a lot of faith in Wendell Smallwood, and if good players at positions
like CB, WR, and T fall on draft day.
1.
Pick 14, Round 1. Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
2.
Pick 43, Round 2. Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida
or Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
3. Pick 74, Round 3. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado
4. Pick 108, Round 4. Cam Sutton, CB, Tennessee
alternative: Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State
5. Pick 119, Round 4. Isaiah ‘Zay’ Jones, WR, East Carolina
6. Pick 138, Round 5. Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo
7. Pick 168, Round 6. Greg Pyke, G, Georgia
8. Pick 201, Round 7. Jonathan McLaughlin,
T, Virginia Tech
Three straight corners? Don't laugh; with the abomination that was the Eagles' secondary in 2016, it could easily happen! Given the talent that was available in this scenario, I'd be quite pleased if the Eagles picked these corners in Rounds 2-4!
I'm actually not sold on Corey Davis at pick 14 or 15, but many are. This selection could provide the Eagles with a young WR whose on-field highlights are reminiscent of Terrell Owens (hopefully he's not like T.O. off the field, though!). If the Eagles' scouts and coaches like him, Eagles' fans days of pining for a tall, playmaking WR may be over.
It's worth reiterating, however, that I wouldn't pick him at #14 or 15; I think the hype on Corey Davis is overblown. He's certainly a promising receiver, but he has weaknesses: he tends not to do so well against press coverage, and he's not very quick/explosive at the line of scrimmage. If they traded down and picked Corey Davis later, I'd be okay with that, because the Eagles would get another player to hopefully address a position of need. But as it stands, I don't think that picking Corey Davis at 14 is the best move.
It's worth reiterating, however, that I wouldn't pick him at #14 or 15; I think the hype on Corey Davis is overblown. He's certainly a promising receiver, but he has weaknesses: he tends not to do so well against press coverage, and he's not very quick/explosive at the line of scrimmage. If they traded down and picked Corey Davis later, I'd be okay with that, because the Eagles would get another player to hopefully address a position of need. But as it stands, I don't think that picking Corey Davis at 14 is the best move.
Kareem Hunt at RB, though, would represent excellent value in the 5th round! I think he's quite a good player, and since the Eagles have Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood, Hunt wouldn't have to be a top-tier player—he'd just have to be able to fill in well. Though Hunt lacks top-end speed, he does have power, shifty moves, good balance, and patience/vision to run behind his blockers until a gap opens up, and then he has the short-area burst to hit the gap hard and fast. For a 5th round RB, Hunt would be an excellent choice!
If you're as interested in the draft as I am, be sure to check out Tommy Lawlor's thoughts at http://scoutsnotebook.com/
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