Wednesday, January 13, 2016

2016 Eagles Mock Draft

2016 Eagles Mock Draft 

The Eagles shot themselves in the foot by winning the last game of the season against the Giants. Consequently, they’ll have a lower pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, which means more quality players will be gone by the time the Eagles pick--and not just in the headline-grabbing first round, but in every round. 

It’s important to make a good selection in the first round, but it’s even more important to do a good job with later picks; particularly in the second through fifth rounds. Making good picks in these later rounds are crucial to maintaining talent and depth at vital positions! 


Teams with good scouting can often pick up high-quality college players in these rounds, because those players are coming off injury, coaching turmoil, or other circumstantial impediments to success. 

I’ve said before that I don’t trust mock drafts. So why the title, “2016 Eagles mock draft?” 

Because it’s more search engine-friendly :)

Instead of making specific predictions that are almost certain to be wrong, I’ve offered a few good options that make sense for the Eagles’ needs and draft slot...most of which will probably be wrong! 

Hey, in my defense, there’s a new coach and a new front office setup. Nobody knows the organizational tendencies or preferences now. So my guess is as good as any!

First, here’s a table listing the Eagles’ picks.  


Nine picks, including three in the first three rounds. Smart drafting, combined with playcalling that is best suited to the players they have, could allow the Eagles to be competitive in the upcoming season. So... 

[read in Roger Goodell’s voice:] 
With the Philadelphia Eagles’ first selection in the 2016 NFL Draft, they consider:

1st round

Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

Solid left tackle prospects who would be better-suited for right tackle.

Shon Coleman (OT, Auburn) as trade-down target? 

Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame
Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia
Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky

Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State
Carl Nassib, DE, Penn State
Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama
Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson

Pick: Trade down, pick Shon Coleman, OT, Auburn

Analysis: The offensive line was in shambles all year. Jason Peters and Jason Kelce committed uncharacteristically high numbers of penalties. Rarely did Eagles running backs see a hole in front of them [joke redacted]. Too often, the quarterback had pressure in his face. Opposing defensive linemen accumulated tackles for loss in the running game, and a ton of pressures in the passing game. How is an offense supposed to function in such a situation? 

It doesn’t. 

Therefore, offensive line is the team’s most pressing issue. If the Eagles want to be competitive, they need more talent on the interior offensive line, and they need better depth all across the line. 

Fortunately, the team can accomplish just that--in this offseason! The first order of business: a tackle. Jason Peters is getting older, and Father Time is undefeated. 

Peters may stay healthy and play at a high level for another year or two, but he cannot play well forever (an argument can be made that he didn’t even play well in 2015!). The team needs to have a succession plan in place. 

Right now, they have part of a plan: Lane Johnson, the starting right tackle, is the heir apparent to Peters’ left tackle spot. But there is no heir apparent at RT. 

Therefore, I think the Eagles’ most likely first round pick, assuming they don’t trade up or down, is Ohio State’s Taylor Decker, or perhaps Michigan State’s Jack Conklin. Both are highly-touted college left tackles, but both have weaknesses as LTs at the pro level. Both are good blockers who would have a lot of work to do to hone their quickness and their footwork against outstanding blind-side pass rushers. 

But both Decker and Conklin are solid prospects. Though they aren’t necessarily best suited to the extremely important LT position, they’re pro-ready as right tackles. At least one of these players will likely be available when the Eagles pick at number 13. If one of them is available when the Eagles are on the board, they shouldn’t hesitate to send the pick in.

If those two are unavailable, Auburn’s Shon Coleman is a good tackle as well. The Eagles may be able to trade down, therefore acquiring another selection, while still picking Coleman, Conklin, or another tackle the coaching staff may prefer). 

This is often a shrewd move, as it would allow the Eagles to draft another player. The more players they draft, the more likely one of them will emerge as a good-to-excellent starter. After all, some very good active players were picked in later rounds: Richard Sherman and Jared Allen were picked in the fourth round; Trent Cole and Robert Mathis went in the fifth; Antonio Brown, Jason Kelce, and Alfred Morris were all sixth-rounders. 

Trivia question: in what round were retired NFL players Rodney Harrison, Herschel Walker, Michael Turner, Hall-of-Fame center Mike Webster, and Zach Thomas (remember him?) drafted? Answer: all were drafted in the fifth round. 

Okay, back to the present. Trading down is often a good move, as it allows a team to hedge its bets by drafting more players. Occasionally, one will end up being a top player like those listed above. And, if not, well...who cries about a sixth-round player being cut? (Other than that sixth-rounder, of course). 

In this case, I actually think it would be preferable not to trade down. It’s vital that the Eagles get a top-notch O-lineman. Bradford’s health and performance, not to mention the performance of the highly-paid running backs, depends on it. The team needs to build an offensive line that isn’t offensive! 


In case the scouts and coaches don’t love any of the tackles available at pick 13, they may want to consider one of the pass rushers. If they plan to continue with the 3-4 defense, they’ll want to look into an outside linebacker like Leonard Floyd or Jordan Jenkins, or perhaps Noah Spence (after thoroughly investigating his history of ecstasy addiction, of course. From the information available, it sounds like he’s committed to never using drugs again. But I obviously can’t check into this like an NFL team can). 

Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith is an explosive and very athletic edge rusher, but he damaged multiple ligaments in his left knee in the Fiesta Bowl. It remains to be seen how this will affect his draft stock, or if he will elect to return to Notre Dame for his senior season. This may be another opportunity for the Eagles to trade down in the first round, pick Smith at a bargain price, and get an extra pick for their trouble. 

As most draftniks are well aware, talented [and healthy] offensive tackles and pass rushers rarely last beyond the first round. Quarterbacks are often taken in the first round as well, but unlike some, I don’t see this as a major need for the Eagles. Bradford is probably the smartest and most accurate passer the Eagles have had in decades! Sanchez is a solid backup who will play well enough to win a couple of games (if the rest of the team around him is good). A first-round quarterback is a luxury the Eagles can’t afford right now, considering all their other needs. 

But then again, I’m in a minority of people who are not sold on the oft-repeated cliche that an elite quarterback will paper over a team’s known problems and lead the club to a Super Bowl victory (see Indianapolis Colts, 2015). Assuming the Eagles stand pat at quarterback--not an unreasonable assumption, but one that may not hold--there are several good prospects, at positions of need, who will be available at the 13th pick. 

I see the most likely scenario as a trade-down to get a talented tackle like Coleman, along with a low-second or high-third-round pick that could be packaged with a seventh-round pick to move up and grab an edge rusher like Spence, or Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah, in the second round. 

3rd round:
Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford
Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State
Sebastian Tretola, OG, Arkansas
Pat Elfein, OG, Ohio State

Whitehair is quick and athletic for a guard, but slow and unathletic for a tackle. Tretola impresses scouts, particularly as a run blocker. Garnett is balanced as a run and pass blocker. Elfein, an underclassman, was an impressive run blocker for Ohio State. 

Will Redmond, CB, Mississippi State
KeiVarae Russell, CB, Notre Dame
Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
William Jackson III, CB, Houston
D.J. White, CB, Georgia Tech

Redmond usually covers receivers by beating them with good technique rather than athleticism. Russell is fast, reads routes well, and changes direction fluidly. May end up as the best of the bunch. Fuller is athletically gifted and has played very well. Jackson is unspectacular but steady, relying on film study and good technique to prevent big plays. White is quick and plays well in small spaces. He plays at full speed, without having to stop and think while a play unfolds. 
Joshua Perry, OLB, Ohio State
Delon Jones, OLB, LSU

Dan Voltz, C, Wisconsin
Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame
Max Tuerk, C, USC

Pick 1: Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford
Pick 2: D.J. White, CB, Georgia Tech

Analysis: Sticking with the ‘offensive line’ theme, I’m projecting a guard for one of the Eagles’ two third-round selections. Garnett is solid at both pass-blocking and run-blocking. Whitehair’s athleticism would be an asset, especially when pulling or blocking downfield. 

Tretola and Elfein are excellent run-blockers, which is a trait you like to see in a guard, especially when he’s blocking for three running backs who are getting paid a combined yearly average of nearly $15 million! However, when you've got a $12 million quarterback, pass protection becomes critically important as well...

With the Eagles’ other third-round selection, I like one of the corners listed above. Redmond, Fuller, and Russell are all 1st-to-2nd-round talents who got injured during the season. Fuller and Russell have both shown the NFL-level skills you want to see in a top cover corner; Redmond is a little less exciting, though he’s still a good technician. 

As a senior, Redmond will definitely enter the draft; the other two may decide to return for another shot at college glory. If the Eagles can’t get any of those three guys, Houston’s Jackson projects as a solid corner who shows good instincts. He may not be a shutdown guy like Patrick Peterson, but there’s a place in the NFL for stable, consistent corners. Georgia Tech’s D.J. White is quick and changes directions well. He’s a natural cover corner who attacks the ball, but he’s a bit smaller than some coaches prefer (shades of Brandon Boykin, anyone?). 

If the Eagles’ brass wants to look at centers in this round, they can expect a variety of skilled players. There will probably be a couple decent prospects at outside linebacker, as well, but the talent level drops noticeably from the first- and second-round guys.

4th round:

Jack Allen, C, Michigan State

A technician who lacks the ability to physically dominate. Can be beaten by good NFL defensive tackles. Needs to add functional strength.

Pick: Jack Allen, C, Michigan State

Analysis: In the fourth round, I like Michigan State center Jack Allen. Can’t hurt to get another lineman who could play center, or perhaps provide some competition at guard. He’s not the most athletic, but he’s a smart and tough player who will play with sound technique. He’s the kind of example-setting player most coaches love to have around. 

If Max Tuerk, Dan Voltz, or Nick Martin are available here, they may be the pick instead.

5th round:

Terence Waugh, DE, Kent State
Kemoko Turay, OLB, Rutgers
Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State
DeVonte Fields, DE, Louisville
Eric Striker, OLB, Oklahoma

Kevin Byard, S, Middle Tennessee State
Jamal Golden, S, Georgia Tech

Pick 1: DeVonte Fields, DE, Louisville
Pick 2: Kevin Byard, S, Middle Tennessee State

Analysis: Okay, I'm just throwing something at the wall here and hoping it sticks. The Eagles need depth at pass rusher and at safety. The players listed above are a few who might be available when the Eagles pick in the fifth round. 

Fields has character concerns, having been involved in a couple off-field incidents, and getting kicked out of TCU after allegedly pointing a gun at his girlfriend. That's why he might--possibly--fall this far. It's likely that the Eagles wouldn't want to draft someone with problems that serious. 
Some sources project Turay, Correa, and Striker to go in the second to third rounds; if they're right, that thins the crop considerably. 

Byard is a small-school player with a big frame, who snagged 5 interceptions in 2015 and is ranked in the top 10 available safeties in a weak group of safeties. I know little else about him or his skill set. 

This is where it comes in handy to have a scouting department to do this stuff for you! The Eagles will probably do a better job at picking fifth round prospects than I just did. Then again, they may package one of these picks in order to move up into the second round, or flip one of these in exchange for a fourth-rounder next year (which would be a pretty wise move, in my opinion). 

6th round:

Matt Johnson, QB, Bowling Green State University

Lacks a stereotypical NFL-caliber arm. Often makes deep throws with his whole body, instead of relying on proper technique and footwork. Fairly accurate, though some throws have a tendency to sail. A respected leader. Extremely productive, in different offenses. Makes wise decisions and doesn't take unnecessary risks.

Pick: Matt Johnson, QB, Bowling Green State University

Analysis: Despite this sixth-round projection, this small-school prospect is no future Tom Brady. Johnson, a productive, high-character leader, is probably a career backup at the NFL level. 

However, he works hard, and may gain some strength at the NFL level, under the tutelage of pro coaches and trainers. He's smart and takes care of the football--exactly what you want in a young, developmental third-string quarterback. 

Also consider that his productivity reflects well on him--Johnson doesn't have elite talent around him; NFL-caliber receivers may make his decisions look a lot better. Johnson would probably do best in a quarterback-friendly West Coast system.

7th round:

John Theus, OT, Georgia

Good size, but lacks movement skills and quickness. Can be driven backward by good defensive linemen. A project.

Gerald Dixon Jr., DT, South Carolina
Willie Henry, DT, Michigan
D.J. Reader, DT, Clemson
Melvin Lewis, DT, Kentucky

Kenny Iloka, S, TCU

Cayleb Jones, WR, Arizona
Devon Cajuste, WR, Stanford

Pick 1: John Theus, OT, Georgia
Pick 2: Gerald Dixon Jr., DT, South Carolina

Analysis: If he can improve his quickness and take well to coaching, Theus could be a steal! He would provide depth at tackle, and could be shifted to guard if he can’t develop. Coaches may like his experience and attitude, even if his athleticism leaves a lot to be desired. 

As much as I was tempted to mock WR Cayleb Jones of Arizona here, the hype train is already leaving the station on Jones. He's likely to go long before the seventh round. For those of you who long for a big receiver, Stanford's Devon Cajuste checks in at 6'4" and 228 pounds. 

He's never been particularly productive, though, and he's most likely to be a cheaper replacement for Riley Cooper. Of course, maybe that's reason enough to draft him here. 

However, I'd like to see some depth and potential on the defensive line. Dixon would provide a prototypical large, gap-clogging anchor man for the defensive line. He could sit behind Bennie Logan for a year or two while he improves his technique and his strength, and potentially step in to give Logan a breather from time to time. 

There are several other options at 3-4 defensive tackle, so this may be a wise move for a coach who wants to ensure that the Eagles' d-line is as deep as it is talented! 

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