Why Mock Drafts Aren’t Worth The Paper They’re (Not) Printed On
First-round mock drafts are usually just useless click-bait.
Popular mocks usually sway in the fickle winds of popular opinion or a new “expert” analysis. They often give too much weight to recent trends, like how a player performed in the combine, or mid-March rumors of “character concerns” about a player.
Sometimes, these concerns are legitimate. But often, they are nothing more than rumors spread by a team that is hoping to torpedo a player’s perceived value, in hopes of getting that player at a bargain. So, you can basically ignore most of the stuff you hear about players after the Combine--it’s nothing but shadow games played by front-office staff around the league.
Media manipulation is rampant. And it doesn't make for good analysis!
Be wary of a college player who shoots up the draft board after the Combine. Just because a player performs well at the Combine does not mean he’ll play football well! Every year, somebody is overvalued based on his ability to run fast in a straight line without pads, or because he can jump high or has long arms or big hands.
The Combine is a standard measurement of physical traits, which is a useful way to tell if that small-school standout really has the athleticism to continue his excellent performance against NFL players.
But it’s too easy to organize a spreadsheet based on the fastest 40-yard-dash time, or the longest broad jump, or the most reps on the bench-press. Football is not at all like a track meet--speed means nothing if you can’t hold onto the ball! Height, weight, or bench press reps mean nothing if a player consistently uses poor technique.
The mental aspects of the game are at least as important as the physical aspects! Compile a roster of nothing but players who do well on Combine measurables, and you’ll end up with a roster like that of the Raiders circa 2003-2009.
The most important thing to consider when evaluating a player is the game tape. How did that person perform, in pads, against competition who is trying their best to beat the player you’re evaluating? How consistent was the player--did he accumulate those gaudy stats against cupcakes, only to disappear against more skilled competition?
Naturally, you have to adjust a tape-based evaluation based on other factors, like quality of competition, the player’s build or athleticism, any character or motivation concerns, and the player’s ability to fit into a particular scheme.
If a player disappears against good competition because he's the only good player on his team, then opponent preparation/scheme provides an explanation for the player's poor performance against top competition.
If a player dominates all his opponents, but leaves a long trail of appalling media reports and legal action in his wake, he may get in trouble before he ever sees the field for a meaningful game--and therefore may not be worth drafting, no matter how talented he is!
But, year after year, mock drafts and other media reports provide knee-jerk reactions. Rarely do they stop to consider a player's history, or his body of work on the field...which is the only place that really counts! (From a football perspective, anyway. Obviously, many things--most things--are more important than football!)
Want to know who's worth drafting?
Trust the tape.
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