Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Which WR should the Eagles draft?

Everyone talks about Western Michigan's Corey Davis, and with good reason. I like Davis' tape, work ethic, and drive to succeed! I do think Davis will be a good NFL wide receiver, and I certainly won't be upset if the Eagles draft him!

But he's not without his faults, and I don't think he's the WR that the Eagles should select--even though I think Davis is going to be very good.


I want the Eagles to pick Virginia Tech's Isaiah Ford or Penn State's Chris Godwin in Round 2-3. Here's why:

  1. The Eagles have many needs at important positions.
  2. Cornerback, a position of critical importance, currently has Jalen Mills (who was a rookie last year), Ron Brooks (a nickel corner who was injured after a few games and missed most of last year), and a bunch of camp bodies who represent depth players, if they even make the roster (e.g. Aaron Grymes, C.J. Smith, and Mitchell White. They might make the roster, and they might play well...but it's not a safe assumption that either will come to pass). While Mills showed promise in his rookie year, his flaws [e.g. a lack of deep speed] were also evident. There is a severe lack of talent at this crucial position on defense.
    • The Eagles therefore need at minimum 2 more corners! And having only 3 starting NFL-caliber corners at the beginning of the season is foolish, so the Eagles will certainly be looking for more! I expect them to draft at least 2 corners, plus signing low-cost free agents. 
    • Cornerback is a premium position. Forward-looking teams will definitely pick the best players at that position, so the best players aren't likely to fall very far in the draft. 
    • While there are a variety of capable cornerbacks in the 2017 draft, Eagles fans have suffered with sub-par cornerback play for years! It's hurting the defense, and that puts more pressure on the offense to score points. That's not an optimal scenario for an offense with limited weapons, an aging offensive line, and a perfectionist QB who was a rookie last year and will feel pressure to improve this year. 
    • Since the defense is much closer to excellence than the offense, it makes sense to snag a top cornerback in the first round of the draft (and probably again before the fourth round is over).
  3. The Eagles can select supremely talented players at cornerback in the first round. Finding such a cornerback with their second-round pick is less likely (though I certainly wouldn't object if the Eagles picked a cornerback in Round 1 and another in Round 2). 
  4. I don't expect any rookie wide receivers in this class to have 1000-yard production in their first year. Not even considering the limitations of the Eagles' current WR corps!
  5. Isaiah Ford, while not as strong (and not as gifted) as Davis, is nonetheless a talented receiver who shows speed, production, good routes, and good hands...as an outside receiver, not as a slot guy like DeDe Westbrook. Same goes for Godwin, who I think is a well-rounded receiver. KD Cannon is likely to get picked at least one round later than Ford and Godwin, but he has no shortage of talent himself!

    Ford is being underrated and undervalued, which will allow the Eagles to select another good player in the first round, while also getting a promising rookie wide receiver in the 2nd or 3rd round--one who is capable of producing from Week 1.
Here's the book on Isaiah Ford: He's explosive, runs great routes, and got plenty of yards and touchdowns despite being the main threat of the VT offense (and therefore the focus of defenses). However, he can struggle with press coverage and lapses in concentration. He's a willing but not exceptionally skilled blocker, and Ford sometimes tails off on his routes, which lets defenders know that they should expect the ball to go elsewhere.

Here are some scouting reports on Isaiah Ford:
http://thedraftster.com/isaiah-ford-nfl-draft-scouting-report/
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/2139164/isaiah-ford
http://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Draft-Scouting-Reports/Scouting-Report-Isaiah-Ford.asp
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/player/isaiah-ford/106444

Something you keep seeing in Ford's scouting reports is that he needs some work on the finer points of his game, but he has lots of potential after benefiting from some NFL development. Once the Eagles acquire a veteran receiver, that's what they should look for: a 2nd- or 3rd-round developmental prospect who has the talent to be a potentially dominant receiver at the NFL level.

Want to see his potential for yourself? Here's a nice highlight video:
*Remember: these are selected as his most impressive plays, so they're not indicative of his play all the time, but they do show his potential. Take these--and all--highlights with a grain of salt!

Here's some Draftbreakdown tape, which presents a more unbiased view of his play:
You'll see a lot of pretty bad QB play, so it's tough to evaluate Ford in isolation. For example, he drops a number of contested throws that were underthrown...so they shouldn't have been contested at all! But the number of times that Ford is wide open--only to have to adjust to a bad throw--indicates to me that he runs polished routes, and a good NFL quarterback will hit him in stride for big plays far more often than happened in college.

Overall, Ford is a good developmental prospect with a far higher ceiling than any wideout who's currently on the Eagles' roster. Would Ford produce a big season for the Eagles this year? No, I'd expect something like 400-500 yards on 25-30 catches [mostly in the 2nd half of the season], with 2-3 touchdowns. But remember...these numbers would have made Ford the 2nd most productive wide receiver [i.e. not Zach Ertz] on the Eagles in 2016!

Good value on a good player allows the Eagles to use their 1st-round draft pick on a player at another position of need. That's why I advocate taking Isaiah Ford (or Chris Godwin; see below) in the second or third round, rather than Corey Davis or Mike Williams in the first. 

Note: Reception Perception has a good breakdown of how well Chris Godwin performs on a wide variety of routes. It's definitely worth a look; I'd be pleased if the Eagles picked Godwin instead of Ford. Godwin did very well in the Combine, so there's a good chance that he will be selected in the 2nd round, or even at the end of the 1st round!

I suspect that Ford will be available a bit later than Godwin, so Ford may end up being the better value. However, the argument can be made that the Eagles should select the superior player, which may be Godwin in the opinion of the Eagles' front office, which is really the only opinion that matters.

Here's a highlight video of Godwin:
And here's some Draftbreakdown tape:
Both players are good WR prospects who are expected to go outside the 1st round of the 2017 NFL draft, which means that both are likely targets for the Eagles. Either one would be a good selection in the 2nd or 3rd round, and would allow the Eagles to get a good WR prospect to grow with Wentz while addressing another need (*ahem* cornerback) with the number 14 pick in the 1st round.

The Eagles should also consider KD Cannon from Baylor, somewhere around Round 3-4. Here's a highlight video showing some impressive concentration and some nice, subtle moves. Remember, highlight videos are made to showcase the good plays rather than providing a balanced view of his strengths and weaknesses alike, but Cannon definitely shows some NFL-caliber traits that would help improve the Eagles' receiving corps right away. I expect Cannon and Ford to both provide good value on good players in the 2017 NFL Draft.
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